Methodology

The model

KI uses a statistical model to estimate the probability of every outcome in every fixture. The model is trained on historical match data and calibrated against tens of thousands of predictions across multiple seasons.

The model accounts for team strength, recent form, expected goals (xG), player availability, squad fatigue, head-to-head history, referee tendencies, and league-specific patterns. It produces a probability for each possible outcome — not a certainty.

KI Picks

A KI Pick is not simply the model's most likely outcome. It requires multiple independent checks to pass simultaneously. The criteria vary by market type and are calibrated against historical accuracy rates.

Most fixtures fail at least one check. The system is deliberately selective — filtering out fixtures where the analysis is ambiguous, the data is incomplete, or the confidence is insufficient.

Odds and ROI

ROI figures are calculated using Bet365 odds captured at approximately 7am on the day of each fixture. Odds are time-sensitive and may have changed by the time you see them. The odds you can obtain may differ from those used in our calculations.

ROI is calculated on a level-stake basis (the same amount on each pick). Past ROI is not a guarantee or prediction of future returns.

Data quality and limitations

Our analysis depends on data from third-party providers. While we validate data quality at every stage, we cannot guarantee completeness or accuracy of source data. Fixtures with insufficient data are automatically blocked from receiving recommendations.

Results may be corrected after publication if source data is updated (e.g., own goals reclassified, match stats revised). We aim to reflect corrections promptly but cannot guarantee real-time accuracy.

The model is updated periodically. Performance figures are segmented by model version to ensure transparency about which version produced which results.

Updates and corrections

Analysis updates automatically when confirmed team lineups are announced (typically 60–90 minutes before kickoff). If a KI Pick changes as a result, the update is reflected on the site. We aim to note when and why analysis changed, but cannot guarantee notification of every update.